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1. A narrative that sounded right
Chen builds a coherent story about Meridian, and it is wrong. · individual
2. The brain as prediction machine
Perception as construction, and how firm that claim is. · individual
3. How prediction works
Layers of prediction, and why strong high-level models resist revision. · individual
4. The cost of surprise
Why a coherent story is cheaper to keep than to revise. · individual
5. Acting on predictions
Two ways to reduce error, and why leaders drift toward the wrong one. · individual
6. Which errors count
Precision, and why a warning can be heard and still ignored. · individual
7. Leadership as meaning-maintenance
Why shared narratives matter, and why they get compressed. · organisation
8. Energy and bandwidth
What is robust, what is disputed, and how to treat bandwidth as a resource. · individual
9. Stress as failed prediction
The stress response, what cortisol does to judgement, and the cost of staying braced. · individual
10. Decisions as narrative stabilisation
Why deciding feels like relief, and why explanations come afterwards. · individual
11. Experience, power and entrenchment
How accumulated experience and insulation from feedback combine. · individual
12. Meridian: Chen, Martinez and Washington
Three people, three predictions, and why they collided. · organisation
13. Meridian: Johnson, Rodriguez and the cascade
Two more predictions, then the system-level failure. · system
14. Integration and practices
What the chapter established, and four things to try. · individual